Out on a Limb: Early March Madness Predictions
Projected National Champion: Wake Forest
The best team in the country at this early point is quite clear. And the fact that that team is Wake Forest is as surprising to me as it may be to the Wake players and coaches themselves.
Sitting here in The 'Pent watching a Wake beatdown of a solid and to date undefeated Clemson squad, on the road to boot, has me thinking that Dino Guadio's team's best game is better than anyone else's. Name me another team with at least a half dozen first round draft picks. You can't. In fact, I think Wake is the most talented college team since the North Carolina national champs of four years back, who featured Marvin Williams, Sean May, Rashard McCants, and Ray Felton, all first rounders. Wake has seven or more potential NBA first rounders: Jeff Teague, James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Tony Woods, Chas McFarland, LD Williams, and Harvey Hale all look like locks for The League to me. And Teague may be the second pick in this year's draft behind Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. Johnson and Aminu appear to be lottery bound whenever they choose to go pro. Yes, this year's Wake Forest team is young and talented, with a slew of big, athletic bodies oozing with basketball savvy.
While being the best team does not mean you will win the whole shooting match (witness last year's UCLA squad), Wake appears to be the best combination of ability, depth, and desire in the country. If they play well, there may be no stopping them come March Madness.
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The Rest of the Final Four:
North Carolina -- Though I would classify the Tar Heels as a mild disappointment to date because of their two losses, they seem to be playing close to their ability on most occasions. With the exception of the inexplicable loss to a middling Boston College team, UNC has played decently; the problem being that they just are not as good as we thought. I am a big believer in NBA talent being the key to winning the NCAA Final Four. And UNC has only two sure fire quality NBA players; Tyler Hansbrough and Ed Davis. Psycho T is a possibility for a second straight POY award nationally, and while he may not make it into the NBA lottery following this his senior year, I am confident he will be a quality pro. Davis fairly oozes talent and basketball IQ. At 6 10, he has the size and game to become a slightly bigger version of Sam Perkins, who was one of the great collegiate players of his generation (he degenerated into a 3 point specialist in the NBA, to his discredit), but Davis is still young and stuck behind some older players. UNC Coach Roy Williams would be well served in giving 25 to 30 minutes a night to his rising star. And potential losses during the year due to Davis lack of experience would be more than made up for by making UNC more of a threat come tourney time. The backcourt has been a major disappointment, as Wayne Ellington has shot the ball poorly and has never developed any other ways to help his team, and point guard Ty Lawson, while possessing a terrific assist/to ratio has been badly outplayed by both Jeff Teague and Tyrese Rice in UNC's two losses. Lawson is a fine player, but does not look like he is NBA starter quality. In short, UNC is a terrific college team, but does not possess the talent to be the juggernaut many expected. They can, no doubt, reach the Final Four for the second year in a row, but in a showdown with Wake Forest, I would pick Wake to cut down the nets at Ford Field in Detroit.
Pitt and UConn -- The Big East is too good this year to not get anyone to Detroit. Pittsburgh and the University of Connecticut are similar to UNC in that they are very good but flawed teams that could easily win four straight come tournament time, especially since they will likely be among the top 8 seeds and thus have an easy time the first weekend. I love UConn's talent and depth, but Coach Calhoun has yet to settle on a rotation. This could hurt them could NCAA time. Look for the Hall of Famer Calhoun to try to cut down his rotation in the coming weeks. Price, Walker, and Dyson are a gifted backcourt, but none of them has taken this team by the throat and delivered in crunch time, as Wake's Teague seems to do. Thabeet is a game changer at center but is still prone to silly fouls and becoming a disappearing act now and again. As for Pitt, from what I have seen they are yet another tough as nails Panther squad that physically beats up their opponents, but may not be able to contend with the iron teams come tourney time. Pitt has a history of winning their first and second round games, but faltering come Sweet 16 time. This year, they may have the best team in school history. I would like them more if they would play well yet still lose a close game soon, as this winning streak is almost certain to play havoc on the kids minds should it continue. They are good enough to get to a Final Four, but probably not good enough to win it all.
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The Rest of the Elite 8:
Georgetown, Syracuse, and Louisville of the Big East -- The meat of the Big East schedule is still to come, but these three teams, along with the previously mentioned Pitt Panthers and UConn Huskies, prove that the Big East may have the best conference top half in NCAA history. In 1985, the then young Big East put three teams in the Final Four; St. Johns, Georgetown, and national champ Villanova. A repeat performance could easily happen this year, with a talented but occasionally wild Syracuse team the most likely of the three to make it to Ford Field. I like the Cuse triple threat coming from talented point guard Jonny Flynn, midrange player Paul Harris, and tough as nails center Arinze Onuaku. With other nice players like Devendorf and Rautins, the Cuse have their best team since the 03 national champions. Look for them to do well in the tournament. Georgetown was handled easily today by Duke at Cameron Indoor, but on a neutral floor I like John Thompson III's squad more than Duke, as the Hoyas are athletic and can score in a variety of ways from a variety of sources. Freshman Greg Monroe could have a breakout tournament as he tries to parlay his success into NBA millions. He is a Chris Bosh play alike with slightly less explosiveness but better passing ability. Louisville is talented everywhere but the point. If they had Flynn at lead guard (instead of Boeheim having him) I'd pick Louisville for the Final Four. But, alas, they don't. What they do have are potential NBAers at the 2 guard in Edgar Sosa and Terrence Williams, small forward in Earl Clark, and big man Samardo Samuels. They may have the second most NBA quality talent in the nation, next to Wake Forest. For that, they get a spot in the projected Elite 8.
Oklahoma -- Due almost entirely of the play of their best two players, big man Blake Griffin and swingman Willie Warren, I think that the Sooners can win three games. Jeff Capel is a young coach proving he belongs among the nation's elite, and in Griffin, Oklahoma has the first pick in the draft. That alone may be enough to get Oklahoma further along in the NCAAs than they have been in quite some time.
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The Rest of the Sweet 16:
Arizona State -- Paul Pierce playalike James Harden looks like a surefire top 5 NBA pick, and his supporting cast is good as well. The best Arizona State team in decades.
USC -- Very talented at at the wings, with DeRozan and Gibson playing well thus far. Tim Floyd has never proven himself in the tournament. This is his chance.
UCLA -- Darren Collison would have been a likely lottery pick had he come out after his sophomore season. Now, he is a JAGG (just another good guy) playing on a team that could just as easily lose in the first round as make a run. They rely almost exclusively on jump shots, and freshman J'rue Holiday has, to these eyes, been a disappointment. They missed their chance to win the school's 12th title last year, and won't be a threat in 09.
Texas -- A disappointment in losing 3 of their last 6 games, yet Texas still has multiple players who can score, defend, rebound, and pass. Basically, if they get hot and if Damion James plays like he is capable, they are a candidate to go far. Rick Barnes is a proven tourney tested coach, as well.
Duke -- Another school as likely to lose in the first round as win two or three. Strictly a jump shooting team, and that will kill them in the tournament. Don't believe the current high ranking, as home court refereeing did in Georgetown today. Also, would someone please tell Gerald Henderson to shave his balding dome? The guy is a future millionaire, but looks like some 30-something rec center playing with that receding hairline. Shave it, kid! Remember MJ did the same thing. There's no shame in going bald, just in looking like a dork.
Tennessee, Ohio State, and Notre Dame -- Notre Dame is the third school I've picked to make a run that could just as easily lose early. They have no obvious NBA talent (and that includes Harangody) and little big time athletic talent. Coach Mike Brey also has yet to make an impact in the NCAAs. I have yet to see much of OSU or UT, yet know they have several very talented players and a playing style conducive to decent tourney runs.
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thanks for reading.....
The best team in the country at this early point is quite clear. And the fact that that team is Wake Forest is as surprising to me as it may be to the Wake players and coaches themselves.
Sitting here in The 'Pent watching a Wake beatdown of a solid and to date undefeated Clemson squad, on the road to boot, has me thinking that Dino Guadio's team's best game is better than anyone else's. Name me another team with at least a half dozen first round draft picks. You can't. In fact, I think Wake is the most talented college team since the North Carolina national champs of four years back, who featured Marvin Williams, Sean May, Rashard McCants, and Ray Felton, all first rounders. Wake has seven or more potential NBA first rounders: Jeff Teague, James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Tony Woods, Chas McFarland, LD Williams, and Harvey Hale all look like locks for The League to me. And Teague may be the second pick in this year's draft behind Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. Johnson and Aminu appear to be lottery bound whenever they choose to go pro. Yes, this year's Wake Forest team is young and talented, with a slew of big, athletic bodies oozing with basketball savvy.
While being the best team does not mean you will win the whole shooting match (witness last year's UCLA squad), Wake appears to be the best combination of ability, depth, and desire in the country. If they play well, there may be no stopping them come March Madness.
-----------------
The Rest of the Final Four:
North Carolina -- Though I would classify the Tar Heels as a mild disappointment to date because of their two losses, they seem to be playing close to their ability on most occasions. With the exception of the inexplicable loss to a middling Boston College team, UNC has played decently; the problem being that they just are not as good as we thought. I am a big believer in NBA talent being the key to winning the NCAA Final Four. And UNC has only two sure fire quality NBA players; Tyler Hansbrough and Ed Davis. Psycho T is a possibility for a second straight POY award nationally, and while he may not make it into the NBA lottery following this his senior year, I am confident he will be a quality pro. Davis fairly oozes talent and basketball IQ. At 6 10, he has the size and game to become a slightly bigger version of Sam Perkins, who was one of the great collegiate players of his generation (he degenerated into a 3 point specialist in the NBA, to his discredit), but Davis is still young and stuck behind some older players. UNC Coach Roy Williams would be well served in giving 25 to 30 minutes a night to his rising star. And potential losses during the year due to Davis lack of experience would be more than made up for by making UNC more of a threat come tourney time. The backcourt has been a major disappointment, as Wayne Ellington has shot the ball poorly and has never developed any other ways to help his team, and point guard Ty Lawson, while possessing a terrific assist/to ratio has been badly outplayed by both Jeff Teague and Tyrese Rice in UNC's two losses. Lawson is a fine player, but does not look like he is NBA starter quality. In short, UNC is a terrific college team, but does not possess the talent to be the juggernaut many expected. They can, no doubt, reach the Final Four for the second year in a row, but in a showdown with Wake Forest, I would pick Wake to cut down the nets at Ford Field in Detroit.
Pitt and UConn -- The Big East is too good this year to not get anyone to Detroit. Pittsburgh and the University of Connecticut are similar to UNC in that they are very good but flawed teams that could easily win four straight come tournament time, especially since they will likely be among the top 8 seeds and thus have an easy time the first weekend. I love UConn's talent and depth, but Coach Calhoun has yet to settle on a rotation. This could hurt them could NCAA time. Look for the Hall of Famer Calhoun to try to cut down his rotation in the coming weeks. Price, Walker, and Dyson are a gifted backcourt, but none of them has taken this team by the throat and delivered in crunch time, as Wake's Teague seems to do. Thabeet is a game changer at center but is still prone to silly fouls and becoming a disappearing act now and again. As for Pitt, from what I have seen they are yet another tough as nails Panther squad that physically beats up their opponents, but may not be able to contend with the iron teams come tourney time. Pitt has a history of winning their first and second round games, but faltering come Sweet 16 time. This year, they may have the best team in school history. I would like them more if they would play well yet still lose a close game soon, as this winning streak is almost certain to play havoc on the kids minds should it continue. They are good enough to get to a Final Four, but probably not good enough to win it all.
---------------
The Rest of the Elite 8:
Georgetown, Syracuse, and Louisville of the Big East -- The meat of the Big East schedule is still to come, but these three teams, along with the previously mentioned Pitt Panthers and UConn Huskies, prove that the Big East may have the best conference top half in NCAA history. In 1985, the then young Big East put three teams in the Final Four; St. Johns, Georgetown, and national champ Villanova. A repeat performance could easily happen this year, with a talented but occasionally wild Syracuse team the most likely of the three to make it to Ford Field. I like the Cuse triple threat coming from talented point guard Jonny Flynn, midrange player Paul Harris, and tough as nails center Arinze Onuaku. With other nice players like Devendorf and Rautins, the Cuse have their best team since the 03 national champions. Look for them to do well in the tournament. Georgetown was handled easily today by Duke at Cameron Indoor, but on a neutral floor I like John Thompson III's squad more than Duke, as the Hoyas are athletic and can score in a variety of ways from a variety of sources. Freshman Greg Monroe could have a breakout tournament as he tries to parlay his success into NBA millions. He is a Chris Bosh play alike with slightly less explosiveness but better passing ability. Louisville is talented everywhere but the point. If they had Flynn at lead guard (instead of Boeheim having him) I'd pick Louisville for the Final Four. But, alas, they don't. What they do have are potential NBAers at the 2 guard in Edgar Sosa and Terrence Williams, small forward in Earl Clark, and big man Samardo Samuels. They may have the second most NBA quality talent in the nation, next to Wake Forest. For that, they get a spot in the projected Elite 8.
Oklahoma -- Due almost entirely of the play of their best two players, big man Blake Griffin and swingman Willie Warren, I think that the Sooners can win three games. Jeff Capel is a young coach proving he belongs among the nation's elite, and in Griffin, Oklahoma has the first pick in the draft. That alone may be enough to get Oklahoma further along in the NCAAs than they have been in quite some time.
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The Rest of the Sweet 16:
Arizona State -- Paul Pierce playalike James Harden looks like a surefire top 5 NBA pick, and his supporting cast is good as well. The best Arizona State team in decades.
USC -- Very talented at at the wings, with DeRozan and Gibson playing well thus far. Tim Floyd has never proven himself in the tournament. This is his chance.
UCLA -- Darren Collison would have been a likely lottery pick had he come out after his sophomore season. Now, he is a JAGG (just another good guy) playing on a team that could just as easily lose in the first round as make a run. They rely almost exclusively on jump shots, and freshman J'rue Holiday has, to these eyes, been a disappointment. They missed their chance to win the school's 12th title last year, and won't be a threat in 09.
Texas -- A disappointment in losing 3 of their last 6 games, yet Texas still has multiple players who can score, defend, rebound, and pass. Basically, if they get hot and if Damion James plays like he is capable, they are a candidate to go far. Rick Barnes is a proven tourney tested coach, as well.
Duke -- Another school as likely to lose in the first round as win two or three. Strictly a jump shooting team, and that will kill them in the tournament. Don't believe the current high ranking, as home court refereeing did in Georgetown today. Also, would someone please tell Gerald Henderson to shave his balding dome? The guy is a future millionaire, but looks like some 30-something rec center playing with that receding hairline. Shave it, kid! Remember MJ did the same thing. There's no shame in going bald, just in looking like a dork.
Tennessee, Ohio State, and Notre Dame -- Notre Dame is the third school I've picked to make a run that could just as easily lose early. They have no obvious NBA talent (and that includes Harangody) and little big time athletic talent. Coach Mike Brey also has yet to make an impact in the NCAAs. I have yet to see much of OSU or UT, yet know they have several very talented players and a playing style conducive to decent tourney runs.
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thanks for reading.....
posted by joe sweeney at 4:51 PM
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