2007 NBA Draft Retrospective: Evaluating Our Evaluation

Back in late December 2006, just two months into the new season, we took a stab at predicting the NBA impact of likely 2007 draft bound players. And man, did we make some doozy statements. Stuff that turned out to be laughably wrongheaded: Spencer Hawes and Brandan Wright better pros that Kevin Durant? Wow, that's a bit off. But early season evaluations are important to learn from: We found out we might not know as much about the greatest game on the planet as we had hoped. But at least we put ourselves out there, and had fun doing it.


Hits:

Greg Oden - Our number one prospect back on 12/29/06 - The kid is injury prone to an amazing degree. Cursed may be a better word. But The 'Pent will live with this prediction. We love his nature, his game, his attitude. It looks like he may never live up to his potential, but no one can tell the staff here at Apartment 404 that saying Oden should be the number one pick was wrong. No one could have predicted his injuries. And none of the other players in that draft have been contributors on a title team, either.

Darren Collison - Our number 2 or 3 prospect as a first year starting sophomore - We fell in love with this kid early in his UCLA sophomore year, and, though he struggled as a junior and senior a bit, he is simply tearing up the league in his rookie year as Chris Paul's replacement down in New Orleans. A complete jackpot hit. Couldn't the Celtics have taken a flyer on this one last year? Damn, we are proud of ourselves: "Stockton with jets."

Al Horford over Joakim Noah as lottery picks - It was no revelation to see that Big Al would be a better pro than the offensively challenged Noah, but we did get this one right. Noah can play a bit, but Horford is close to being a star on a really good Hawk team.


Misses:

Kevin Durant - We had him behind Oden, Hawes, and Collison on that original list - Big miss, though we still say he is more McAdoo (who played on some pretty good Buffalo Braves team early on in his muddled career that look a lot like today's Ok City Thunder) than Bird or Bernard King. The man can score, but there are lots of those. He is in the perfect situation in Oklahoma City, with Westbrook another star on the rise, some other good young talent surrounding him, and smart management. Is it good for Durant to play in such a media wasteland? Not sure, but he seems a good kid and worth rooting for.

Spencer Hawes - Along with Collison and Oden, one of our top 3 prospects - OK, so we overstated it a bit. We were young and in love, especially with the way he toyed with Glen Davis and LSU is his national coming out party early on his freshman year. Hawes is going to be a solid pro but lack of athleticism will hold him back from being a star.

Brandan Wright and Dominic James - Top 6 picks for us, washouts as pros Complete wiffs by us, though James injuries have had an effect. It just shows us that if kids don't play with passion when they are in school, the thought of NBA millions will not change their attitudes.