2010 NBA Draft Prediction: For the Lull Before the Storm
By lull, we mean the couple of days after the end of the college regular season and the start of major conference championships and the Big Dance. So we thought it'd be fun and revealing to take a look at the prospects for this summer's NBA Draft and see how far off we might come in predicting their fates at the next level. Here goes...
--------------
Tier Ones - Future Stars, Likely All Stars
Evan Turner, the clear cut top prospect - You say "John Wall?" We say "Bust." Turner is a potential monster point guard much like last year's Tyreke Evans. Came back better than ever from the back injury so you know he wants it. He's number one easily in our minds.
DeMarcus Cousins - His footwork was brutal in the early going, but Coach Calipari knows what the freak he is doing, doesn't he? The most improved player in the country is this freshman. He is not a prototype center, and his attitude seems questionable, but we'd take him second. A true 6 11 widebody with great long arms. He is a future All Star. It's just a question of how high is up. Dwight Howard is the best comparison, and that's pretty damn good.
Undraftable -
John Wall - Very likely the Ryan Leaf of the NBA. We wouldn't touch this future toxic dump. He has reportedly had attitude problems his entire life. We know, we know, he's only a kid, but oftentimes, leopards don't change their spots. The biggest red flags are twofold: (1) His play has regressed since the first month of the year as the hype has built, and (2) his mouthing off to the press about Cal. Either one would worry us. Put them both together and you have a coach killing historic talent who will, at best, be that next Steph Marbury. And what is THAT worth?
Tier Twos - Worth Lottery Money
This is the crappiest draft in memory. And we are having a hard time coming up with ANYONE we'd want to pay with lottery money. So no Tier Twos will be offered. Lottery selections will be made at each team's peril. We'd rather have two or three picks in the 20s than one in the mid lottery.
Tier Threes - Likely Starters, Possible Stars
Derrick Favors - Beastly athletes like this don't come around very often. Not much game at this point, but he plays hard. A chance to be good, a chance to suck.
Cole Aldrich - We've gone back and forth on the Kansan in his career. Sometimes we think he can be a solid starter, other times his lack of obvious athleticism makes us think "washout." We're betting on a good career, as he has played in a wonderful program, receiving top notch instruction and great competition. Has a big long body with decent ups and the stupidest free throw style in the country.
Wes Johnson - We absolutely agree with the Shawn Marion comparison. and that's a mighty fine thing. Should be really, really good, but he simply can't dribble. More of a 3's game than a 2, but he has a 2's body. A real tweener who would be great in New Orleans, say, with either Chris Paul, or, should Paul be dealt, Darren Collison. Both are true 1's who will allow Johnson to roam.
Tier Fours - Draftable in the 20s but not likely to pan out
What does a General Manager look for in the latter stages of the first round? Does he look for overall skill? One talent that might blow up, like shooting, which makes the player useful? A mixture of youth and athletic ability? We guess it's not an easy question to answer.
Also, we should note that we have not seen a lot of, and in some cases nothing at all, of highly thought of players like Hassan Whiteside, Ekpe Udoh, Solomon Alabi, Larry Sanders, Paul George, Terrico White, and Jarvis Varnado as well as the international players entering the draft.
Ed Davis - Should return to school not because of injury but because he doesn't play very hard. Do we have another Brandan Wright here? He is passionless on the court; not a good sign. Would probably be better financially to come out this year, but we wouldn't touch him.
Al-Farouq Aminu - A true talent. Could be really good. Has that awkward jump shot/free throw style where he exaggerates the follow through with his wrist. Does this mean he is overcoached? Undercoached? We have no idea, but it is fascinating to see him curl his wrist so far down. We'd take him in the teens if his interview went well.
Stanley Robinson - The next John Salley? We'd like to see a Salley clone on the Celtics. Robinson can't shoot but man is he athletic and long. A lot of great players have played for Coach Calhoun and there isn't a better prospect on this year's team than Robinson. A bench player but could be worth a pick around 20.
Other Notables:
Willie Warren - Has had a distasterous sophomore year, but then Glen Davis had a similar junior year at LSU and turned out just fine. Issues with Coach Capel? You need to start with talent and this kid's got lots.
Xavier Henry - We wouldn't take him as he lacks quickness and may have a huge problem getting off his shot at the next level. Maybe the NBA version of a AAAA player in baseball: not quite good enough for The Association.
Avery Bradley - Better stay in school. He is currently a 2 guard in an undersized 1's body. You need to hit the weight room, kid. Has a lot of ability and may be a top five pick in two years, but not this year.
------------------------
Clearly there's a ton of kids we haven't commented on, mostly because they don't excite us. Truly this will not be great draft, but there are always surprise stars that emerge. That's why it's so fascinating.
NBADraft.net and DraftExpress.com are the two "go to" sites for draft info for us.
------------------------
Edit @ 3:20 pm: After noticing Marshall's 6 10 Hassan Whiteside shooting up the draft boards, we watched some video and did some reading about him. Clearly, watching the YouTube vid shows that he has amazing talent, but there are red flags galore: age, as he is two years older than most frosh, he played at several high schools, and his demeanor on the court is a bit over the top and worrisome. Also, he ain't seven feet and needs plenty of muscle to play the same game in the pros as he is right now at the midmajor level. Bottom line: worth a gamble if he doesn't talk, act, or play his way out of the lottery, as that kind of talent is rare. But he could just as easily disappear due to attitude or the fact that a lot of big men dominate at his level and can't get it down in the next. Fun to watch, though.
--------------
Tier Ones - Future Stars, Likely All Stars
Evan Turner, the clear cut top prospect - You say "John Wall?" We say "Bust." Turner is a potential monster point guard much like last year's Tyreke Evans. Came back better than ever from the back injury so you know he wants it. He's number one easily in our minds.
DeMarcus Cousins - His footwork was brutal in the early going, but Coach Calipari knows what the freak he is doing, doesn't he? The most improved player in the country is this freshman. He is not a prototype center, and his attitude seems questionable, but we'd take him second. A true 6 11 widebody with great long arms. He is a future All Star. It's just a question of how high is up. Dwight Howard is the best comparison, and that's pretty damn good.
Undraftable -
John Wall - Very likely the Ryan Leaf of the NBA. We wouldn't touch this future toxic dump. He has reportedly had attitude problems his entire life. We know, we know, he's only a kid, but oftentimes, leopards don't change their spots. The biggest red flags are twofold: (1) His play has regressed since the first month of the year as the hype has built, and (2) his mouthing off to the press about Cal. Either one would worry us. Put them both together and you have a coach killing historic talent who will, at best, be that next Steph Marbury. And what is THAT worth?
Tier Twos - Worth Lottery Money
This is the crappiest draft in memory. And we are having a hard time coming up with ANYONE we'd want to pay with lottery money. So no Tier Twos will be offered. Lottery selections will be made at each team's peril. We'd rather have two or three picks in the 20s than one in the mid lottery.
Tier Threes - Likely Starters, Possible Stars
Derrick Favors - Beastly athletes like this don't come around very often. Not much game at this point, but he plays hard. A chance to be good, a chance to suck.
Cole Aldrich - We've gone back and forth on the Kansan in his career. Sometimes we think he can be a solid starter, other times his lack of obvious athleticism makes us think "washout." We're betting on a good career, as he has played in a wonderful program, receiving top notch instruction and great competition. Has a big long body with decent ups and the stupidest free throw style in the country.
Wes Johnson - We absolutely agree with the Shawn Marion comparison. and that's a mighty fine thing. Should be really, really good, but he simply can't dribble. More of a 3's game than a 2, but he has a 2's body. A real tweener who would be great in New Orleans, say, with either Chris Paul, or, should Paul be dealt, Darren Collison. Both are true 1's who will allow Johnson to roam.
Tier Fours - Draftable in the 20s but not likely to pan out
What does a General Manager look for in the latter stages of the first round? Does he look for overall skill? One talent that might blow up, like shooting, which makes the player useful? A mixture of youth and athletic ability? We guess it's not an easy question to answer.
Also, we should note that we have not seen a lot of, and in some cases nothing at all, of highly thought of players like Hassan Whiteside, Ekpe Udoh, Solomon Alabi, Larry Sanders, Paul George, Terrico White, and Jarvis Varnado as well as the international players entering the draft.
Ed Davis - Should return to school not because of injury but because he doesn't play very hard. Do we have another Brandan Wright here? He is passionless on the court; not a good sign. Would probably be better financially to come out this year, but we wouldn't touch him.
Al-Farouq Aminu - A true talent. Could be really good. Has that awkward jump shot/free throw style where he exaggerates the follow through with his wrist. Does this mean he is overcoached? Undercoached? We have no idea, but it is fascinating to see him curl his wrist so far down. We'd take him in the teens if his interview went well.
Stanley Robinson - The next John Salley? We'd like to see a Salley clone on the Celtics. Robinson can't shoot but man is he athletic and long. A lot of great players have played for Coach Calhoun and there isn't a better prospect on this year's team than Robinson. A bench player but could be worth a pick around 20.
Other Notables:
Willie Warren - Has had a distasterous sophomore year, but then Glen Davis had a similar junior year at LSU and turned out just fine. Issues with Coach Capel? You need to start with talent and this kid's got lots.
Xavier Henry - We wouldn't take him as he lacks quickness and may have a huge problem getting off his shot at the next level. Maybe the NBA version of a AAAA player in baseball: not quite good enough for The Association.
Avery Bradley - Better stay in school. He is currently a 2 guard in an undersized 1's body. You need to hit the weight room, kid. Has a lot of ability and may be a top five pick in two years, but not this year.
------------------------
Clearly there's a ton of kids we haven't commented on, mostly because they don't excite us. Truly this will not be great draft, but there are always surprise stars that emerge. That's why it's so fascinating.
NBADraft.net and DraftExpress.com are the two "go to" sites for draft info for us.
------------------------
Edit @ 3:20 pm: After noticing Marshall's 6 10 Hassan Whiteside shooting up the draft boards, we watched some video and did some reading about him. Clearly, watching the YouTube vid shows that he has amazing talent, but there are red flags galore: age, as he is two years older than most frosh, he played at several high schools, and his demeanor on the court is a bit over the top and worrisome. Also, he ain't seven feet and needs plenty of muscle to play the same game in the pros as he is right now at the midmajor level. Bottom line: worth a gamble if he doesn't talk, act, or play his way out of the lottery, as that kind of talent is rare. But he could just as easily disappear due to attitude or the fact that a lot of big men dominate at his level and can't get it down in the next. Fun to watch, though.
posted by joe sweeney at 7:40 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home