Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Why "Duke" Epstein needs to change course. Quickly.

Five reasons why Theo Epstein is dangerously morphing into a latter day Dan Duquette. Though with much cooler hair.

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1) Hamstring Drew might turn out to be another Carl Everett -
Though JD will most likely never headbutt an ump during an anger filled tirade (that actually might be kind of nice to see out of the unemotional outfielder), he may be just as divisive a clubhouse presence. The Sox new centerfielder carries a rep as someone that teammates don't count on, due to his penchant for sitting out dozens of games each year with various ailments, as well exhibiting an emotionless approach to performing every day. Everett was another hugely talented player that never put it all together, albiet for different reasons, drifting from organization to organization before settling into his late career role as a secondary player not productive enough to be included among the bullwork of a contending team's lineup. Boston needs a healthy and hustling JD Drew next season. Or that contract will be an albatross for some time.


2) Theo's infatuation with the backup's backup, Doug Mirabelli -
Today, the Sox announced Mirabelli had signed on for the 2007 season at $750K. What gives? Just what gives? Doesn't Theo remember trading Josh Bard (as well as Cla Meredith, a pitcher that management gave up on waaaaaay too early, quite obviously) away to get this guy back from the Padres? Mirabelli might be described as a metrosexual with "a plumbers build" ("Moneyball"). Further, he is just not a MLB caliber player, especially for a team with a World Series victory as it goal. $750K may allow the Red Sox to cut him in spring training should they locate a serviceable catcher to aid Varitek. We hope so.


3) Is Julio Lugo another Jose Offerman? -
If we here in Apt404 read any quotes planted by Sox management in the Boston media about replacing "on base percentage", well, that wouldn't be good. OBP was what Duquette claimed Mr. Offerman would provide the Sox after the ill fated Mo Vaughn signed a free agent deal with the Angels following the 1998 season. Lugo is 31, the age at which shortstops throughout the history of baseball begin the inevitable decline in skill. What to do with a declining SS? Move him to second, or even first, as happened with Offerman in the second half of his career. Four years at $36 million for a mediocrity like Lugo seems to be a bad deal any way you look at it. And no. Apartment404.blogspot.com is not gonna mention H----y's name in this here blog. Nope.


4) $103 million for Daisuke Matsuzaka is a massive amount of money, but may turn out to be worth it if he becomes a top notch #1 starter, a la Pedro -
This was one gamble by the man from Dalton that paid off in a big way. Duquette lifted Pedro Martinez from his old club, the Montreal Expos, via one of the most lopsided trades in the history of Boston baseball, then locked him up the following year for what was at the time considered an outrageous amount of cash. Could the gyro-ball throwing Matsuzaka be another Pedro, who from 1998 until 2000 was very likely the most dominant pitcher of the modern era? He pretty damn well better be, for $103 million.


5) "Duke"/Duke's background.

-- Both were raised in Massachusetts. Duquette in Dalton. Theo in Cambridge.
-- Both were extremely young hires at GM. Duquette, first in Montreal, then back in Boston. Theo was hired away from San Diego by Lucchino at the age of 28.
-- Both put a tremendous amount of trust in young, talented pitchers with major question marks. Pedro was thought to be too small to be a successful starter at his first stop, with the Dodgers. And even after the Cy Young he was awarded in '97 after a memorable season with the Expos, there was talk he would not hold up. Matsuzaka comes from the Japanese league, which has provided MLB with several successful pitchers, but never a long term #1. Hideo Nomo burned out quickly and lost a lot of arm strength, likely due to overuse. Matsuzaka is another proponent of the Japanese method of overtraining, and it remains to be seen if his body and arm can hold up for the length of his contract. Here's hoping he does.
-- Both enjoyed early success with the Old Towne Team. Duquette won a playoff spot in '95. And Theo, of course, put together the World Series winners of '04.

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