FWIW - Our Bracket
First Round Upsets -- Unless mentioned, go with chalk
San Diego State over Tennessee -- What a poop fest of a game UT laid down versus Kentucky in the SEC final. They could go either way after the embarrassment. We think a good Aztec club, coached by veteran winner Steve Fischer, will win.
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State -- This is only because we like Paul Hewitt, a vet, over Travis Ford, who is still pretty inexperienced. And we love to watch the Tech front line. Those guards, though: Ouch!
Florida State over Gonzaga -- The 8/9 games are always tough to pick: which high major, pissed that they aren't getting out of the first weekend, will bring it. Gonzaga's program has been overrated for years. They've had high major talent without the tournament results lately. It might continue.
Murray State over Vanderbilt -- Not sure why, just don't like Vandy. But they could easily make the Sweet 16 as well. Hate to watch Australian big man A.J. Ogilvy play for Vandy. He sweats too much. Not cool.
Florida over BYU -- The sinners over the "saints." The Gators have won their last 12 NCAA tourney games. Make it 13. An easy game to choose who to root for.
Wake Forest over Texas -- Yes, we picked UT to make a late season run. That was before their point guard went down. Now, they are directionless and seemingly unfocused. Fodder for UK either way, though.
Missouri over Clemson -- Don't like either team, as Clemson always makes a late season swan dive. This is an annoying matchup because the NCAA tournament committee has guaranteed that one of these two high majors will be able to claim a round of 32 bid. Neither deserves it. Notice how the committee seems to match the high majors against each other when possible in these types of mid seed games? That's to keep the mid majors down we expect.
Louisville over Cal -- Anyone who bets on Cal to beat Pitino will get what they deserve. Mike Montgomery went to one Final Four at Stanford but that was a long time ago. Bet on Pitino in the tournament always always.
Siena over injured and reeling Purdue -- The Boilermakers were early 4 point favorites over Siena, why we're not sure. We know nothing about Siena other than they were bad ass last year and Purdue lost their best player and heart and soul, Robbie Hummel, to a knee a few games back. How can anyone but Greg Christopher pick Purdue?
Saint Mary's over RIchmond -- St. Mary's is pretty good. This is a classic mid major 7/10 game that the committee loves to throw at us. We'd love it if they had broken up these two teams with the Clemson/Missouri matchup, swapping so a high played a mid in each bracket. But that might allow 2 mid majors, not at most 1, to make the Round of 32, which the NCAA doesn't want.
Round of 32 Upsets --
Butler over Murray State -- Butler is a nice team on a late season roll. They have two kids in Hayward and Howard who can really play. No reason they can't survive the opening weekend.
Temple over Wisconsin -- A minor upset. Fran Dunphy can surely coach and Temple and Wisconsin will be a betting pick 'em, so we'll go with the Owls.
Marquette over New Mexico -- What has Steve Alford ever done in the tournament? Marquette is a bad ass underdog from the biggest, baddest conference in the country.
Texas A&M over Siena -- Someone's gotta win this sub region, right?
Notre Dame over Baylor -- Baylor is smoking hot and one of the real dark horses overall, but we like this veteran Irish squad. It would be nice for Big Luke Harangody to go out on a high note. He's been a workhorse for four years.
Final Four --
Kansas -- The favorites might be challenged by Michigan State, but not Georgetown. The Hoyas, we expect, will lay an egg against Izzo.
Syracuse -- We've been Cuse fans since the Louis and Bouie Show, which coincidentally was the last time they were a 1 seed. They are gooooood, but maybe not as talented as UK and Kansas. Other than Wes Johnson we don't see an NBA player wearing Orange. But they should beat conference rival Pitt in the Elite Eight game and advance to Boeheim's fourth Final Four.
Kentucky -- Are they as talented as "The Untouchables" of 1995-96, the greatest UK team ever of Antoine Walker, Tony Delk, Nazr Mohammad, Ron Mercer and so many other notables? Yes, at the starters spots, at least, but this year's team isn't as experienced as those monsters. Did you see them celebrate last weekend like they'd won the game, when Cousins bucket had only tied it in the SEC title game? If they get in a late game "Time and Score" situation, they may pull a Webber and fuck up.
Villanova -- We've picked 5 Big East teams in the Elite Eight. Will that happen? No. But how do you pick against this conference. If only Boston College hadn't left. We aren't crazy about Nova's late season swoon, but they are good and guard oriented.
National Champs -- Kansas over UK -- As it should be. Can't wait for what might be an all time great Monday night.
San Diego State over Tennessee -- What a poop fest of a game UT laid down versus Kentucky in the SEC final. They could go either way after the embarrassment. We think a good Aztec club, coached by veteran winner Steve Fischer, will win.
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State -- This is only because we like Paul Hewitt, a vet, over Travis Ford, who is still pretty inexperienced. And we love to watch the Tech front line. Those guards, though: Ouch!
Florida State over Gonzaga -- The 8/9 games are always tough to pick: which high major, pissed that they aren't getting out of the first weekend, will bring it. Gonzaga's program has been overrated for years. They've had high major talent without the tournament results lately. It might continue.
Murray State over Vanderbilt -- Not sure why, just don't like Vandy. But they could easily make the Sweet 16 as well. Hate to watch Australian big man A.J. Ogilvy play for Vandy. He sweats too much. Not cool.
Florida over BYU -- The sinners over the "saints." The Gators have won their last 12 NCAA tourney games. Make it 13. An easy game to choose who to root for.
Wake Forest over Texas -- Yes, we picked UT to make a late season run. That was before their point guard went down. Now, they are directionless and seemingly unfocused. Fodder for UK either way, though.
Missouri over Clemson -- Don't like either team, as Clemson always makes a late season swan dive. This is an annoying matchup because the NCAA tournament committee has guaranteed that one of these two high majors will be able to claim a round of 32 bid. Neither deserves it. Notice how the committee seems to match the high majors against each other when possible in these types of mid seed games? That's to keep the mid majors down we expect.
Louisville over Cal -- Anyone who bets on Cal to beat Pitino will get what they deserve. Mike Montgomery went to one Final Four at Stanford but that was a long time ago. Bet on Pitino in the tournament always always.
Siena over injured and reeling Purdue -- The Boilermakers were early 4 point favorites over Siena, why we're not sure. We know nothing about Siena other than they were bad ass last year and Purdue lost their best player and heart and soul, Robbie Hummel, to a knee a few games back. How can anyone but Greg Christopher pick Purdue?
Saint Mary's over RIchmond -- St. Mary's is pretty good. This is a classic mid major 7/10 game that the committee loves to throw at us. We'd love it if they had broken up these two teams with the Clemson/Missouri matchup, swapping so a high played a mid in each bracket. But that might allow 2 mid majors, not at most 1, to make the Round of 32, which the NCAA doesn't want.
Round of 32 Upsets --
Butler over Murray State -- Butler is a nice team on a late season roll. They have two kids in Hayward and Howard who can really play. No reason they can't survive the opening weekend.
Temple over Wisconsin -- A minor upset. Fran Dunphy can surely coach and Temple and Wisconsin will be a betting pick 'em, so we'll go with the Owls.
Marquette over New Mexico -- What has Steve Alford ever done in the tournament? Marquette is a bad ass underdog from the biggest, baddest conference in the country.
Texas A&M over Siena -- Someone's gotta win this sub region, right?
Notre Dame over Baylor -- Baylor is smoking hot and one of the real dark horses overall, but we like this veteran Irish squad. It would be nice for Big Luke Harangody to go out on a high note. He's been a workhorse for four years.
Final Four --
Kansas -- The favorites might be challenged by Michigan State, but not Georgetown. The Hoyas, we expect, will lay an egg against Izzo.
Syracuse -- We've been Cuse fans since the Louis and Bouie Show, which coincidentally was the last time they were a 1 seed. They are gooooood, but maybe not as talented as UK and Kansas. Other than Wes Johnson we don't see an NBA player wearing Orange. But they should beat conference rival Pitt in the Elite Eight game and advance to Boeheim's fourth Final Four.
Kentucky -- Are they as talented as "The Untouchables" of 1995-96, the greatest UK team ever of Antoine Walker, Tony Delk, Nazr Mohammad, Ron Mercer and so many other notables? Yes, at the starters spots, at least, but this year's team isn't as experienced as those monsters. Did you see them celebrate last weekend like they'd won the game, when Cousins bucket had only tied it in the SEC title game? If they get in a late game "Time and Score" situation, they may pull a Webber and fuck up.
Villanova -- We've picked 5 Big East teams in the Elite Eight. Will that happen? No. But how do you pick against this conference. If only Boston College hadn't left. We aren't crazy about Nova's late season swoon, but they are good and guard oriented.
National Champs -- Kansas over UK -- As it should be. Can't wait for what might be an all time great Monday night.
posted by joe sweeney at 2:59 AM
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